Governance, sustainable development and international politics of a future ice-free Arctic

Expected Outcome:

Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:

• improved knowledge of the processes, feedbacks and impacts of an ice-free Arctic, both locally/regionally and globally, including advanced research on newly emerging aspects of the future regime change in the Arctic.
• enhanced observations and monitoring capabilities of Arctic changes including ocean, land, sea-ice and atmosphere processes and biodiversity in the Arctic, informing the key components covered by the topic, i.e. governance, sustainable development and international politics of an ice-free Arctic.
• knowledge-based recommendations for sustainable development (of ocean-based and blue economy activities), environmental conservation, climate change adaptation and resilience, better-informed planning of resources (with a focus on coastal communities and activities) and enabled evidence-based regional, European, and global decision–making on Arctic Ocean Governance; sustained European leadership in ocean–climate–biodiversity-cryosphere science; significant contributions made to global scientific assessments, such as the IPCC, IPBES, SWIPA (Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic) and WOA (World Ocean Assessments), as well as to the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021 – 2030) and Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences (2025-2034), Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement (CAOFA), the International Polar Year 2032-2033, UN SDGs 13 and 14, and the European polar science coordination efforts.

Scope:

Proposals should:

• better understand, project and reduce uncertainties linked to the impacts, timing and consequences of an ice-free Arctic. This includes the underlying systems (such as ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere) and processes, strengthening research on key or main drivers of internal variability and their interconnectedness to the climate system, under multi and cumulative and cascading impacts of anthropogenic activities (resource extraction, climate change, shipping and industrial activities, pollution, introduction of NIS, etc.), abrupt, irreversible change/tipping elements and thresholds, including their reversibility. In particular, understanding the nuances of the impacts of occasional daily ice-free conditions, versus frequent monthly ice-free conditions, versus ice-free conditions that occur for several months a year, is needed to assess the true impact of a new seasonal Arctic sea ice regime in a warming world, in particular in and for Europe.
• enhance regional models representing integrated key physical, biogeochemical, and biological processes, especially to capture processes in the changing sea-ice regimes (ecological and political) and the impacts of extremes, building on and further developing the existing IPCC class climate models and making use of new technologies for sustained monitoring of key climate indicators / shared Arctic variables and machine learning techniques for the advanced interpretation of these data.
• identify transformative pathways and key leverage points for sustainable mitigation and anticipatory adaptation approaches. This could include and are not limited to looking into aspects of: community resilience and health, particularly Indigenous populations, in adapting to cultural, political, economic and environmental changes, including addressing food security, health impacts, and preserving cultural practices; explore novel economic opportunities and challenges, evaluating the potential for shorter and new shipping routes and other economic opportunities, explore sustainable energy solutions for Arctic communities, including wind, solar, and geothermal energy potential, resource exploration, and sustainable economic development while ensuring environmental protection; explore elements of risk management and hazard mitigation preparing for increased coastal erosion, increased extreme weather events, and the impacts of thawing permafrost on infrastructures, greenhouse emissions, and increased risks of natural and anthropogenic hazards; develop strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance carbon sequestration in Arctic ecosystems (bearing in mind the precautionary principle/approach, and the efficiency and effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions); improve projections for Arctic’s “Last Ice Area” (LIA) — a vital habitat for ice-dependent species — and critical for Arctic habitats, and inform conservation policies and measures; explore the power of enhancing cooperation among Arctic nations and global partners to share data, resources, and expertise and identify issues of geopolitical and strategic nature and assess the implications of a navigable Arctic for shipping and other blue economy or coastal-linked activities, resource extraction, and international relations, strongly considering sustainability and the precautionary principle/approach.

Actions should conduct trans- and multi-disciplinary research, include aspects of gender, SSH, equality and inclusion, and intergenerational concerns, and strengthen the inclusion of different knowledge systems (Indigenous Knowledge, Local Knowledge and Science) in broadening our understanding the multifaceted governance, sustainable development and international politics of an ice-free Arctic. International cooperation is strongly encouraged, especially with the All-Atlantic Ocean Research and Innovation Alliance (AAORIA) partner countries^[1]. A strong linkage should be ensured with the ongoing activities under Polhavet 2050 – Arctic Ocean 2050. The actions should build on existing observing platforms and initiatives, and/or contribute to the evolution of the EU Digital Twin of the Ocean and Destination Earth. All in-situ data collected through actions funded from this call should follow INSPIRE principles and be available through open access repositories supported by the European Commission (Copernicus and EMODnet). Concrete efforts should be made to ensure that the data produced in the context of the funded projects is FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Re-usable).

This topic is part of a coordination initiative between ESA and the European Commission on Earth System Science and should towards this end include sufficient means and resources for effective coordination, with relevant ESA Polar Science Cluster projects, including utilising novel satellite Earth Observation datasets and joint research actions. Furthermore, this topic is supporting the European polar science coordination efforts, including synergies with the objectives of the European Polar Coordination Office (EPCO) and through contributing to the implementation of its work plan. Proposals are encouraged to consider, where relevant, the data, expertise and services offered by European research infrastructures^[2], as well as related projects in the environment domain.

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) may participate as member of the consortium selected for funding. The JRC may contribute with its expertise related to developing new methods to forecast air pollution and to estimate methane emissions from thawing permafrost.

[1] Home - All Atlantic Ocean Research and Innovation Alliance

[2] The catalogue of European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) research infrastructures portfolio can be browsed from ESFRI website https://ri-portfolio.esfri.eu/